Tag Archives: maps

A by-the-map look at how the Hollingsworth vs. Hudson District 3 race for the Seattle City Council could play out

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By Andrew Hong, special for CHS

Seattle City Council District 3 (Capitol Hill, Central District, Madison Park, Montlake, Eastlake) is no stranger to close city council elections. The last two city council contests in District 3 were decided by less than 5%. The data from the 2023 August primary election suggests District 3 is headed into another nail-biter in the November general election.

Following my report on the precinct-level primary election results, I modeled the potential outcome of the 2023 Seattle City Council District 3 general election using a variety of methodologies and referencing the previous 2019 primary and general elections for a historic perspective. Each of these models predicts another close race that will be decided by less than 5%, with different models predicting different winners.

To make these predictions, I used a combination of quantitative and qualitative political inferences to build models of predicting the general election outcome from the 2023 August primary results and past 2019 District 3 primary and general election results. A part of my qualitative inference was classifying 2023 and 2019 candidates on an ideological spectrum to get a better sense of how primary candidates’ voters will shift in the general election. Continue reading →

Mapping Seattle’s I-135 vote as social housing hopped District 3’s E Republican line

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Thanks to @J2XL for again providing mapping of key Seattle election results

District 3 voters showed some of the strongest support in the city in the February election that established a new social housing developer at Seattle City Hall. And a few key voting trend borders within the district were breached including the vaunted E Republican line.

The precinct by precinct results from the February special election have been finalized and mapped by analysts. They follow some familiar general patterns of approval for progressive causes and candidates including Seattle’s propensity for voters in its waterfront regions to separate themselves from the core of the city. Continue reading →

Google Street View has gone dark for parts of Capitol Hill

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Maybe it is testament to the area’s nightlife bonafides. Maybe it is a momentary glitch in massive scale tech. But for some reason, large stretches of Capitol Hill are being rendered in fuzzy, overexposed nighttime scenes in the Google Street View system.

It’s not an April Fools’ Day prank. The murky scenes appeared in December following an update to the neighborhood’s imagery. A Google spokesperson initially responded to our inquiry about the issue weeks ago but we haven’t heard back from her since.

In the December update, the system appears to be using a batch of photography shot at night — an unusual update for the popular Google feature. The result is a dark and fuzzy and sometimes unintentionally artful look at certain areas of Pike/Pine and the rest of the Hill. Continue reading →

Mapped: How Sawant defeated the recall, precinct by precinct

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The political divides across Capitol Hill and the Central District are as strong as ever. The precinct by precinct results from the December 7th District 3 recall vote once again reveal strong divisions between the area’s most densely populated and least wealthy areas and its richest, single family zoning dominated neighborhoods.

CHS examined the precinct results from November’s general election heading into the recall vote here, pondering whether the E Republican line would again hold in December.

It did with those voting against the recall of Kshama Sawant dominating precincts to the south while “yes” votes dominated in the north.

But another important line of demarcation was also made clear in December’s results.

The line running north-south along 31st Ave — the Madrona line? — is also a distinct border zone between the district’s more progressive and more conservative voters nearer to the shores of Lake Washington. Continue reading →

Welcome, Laurelhurst? No matter how state redistricting hiccup works out, likely only small changes ahead for Capitol Hill’s 43rd District

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The 43rd today, left, and the commission’s approved (but not final) adjustments

For all Capitol Hill residents on the edge of their seat wondering if the neighborhood will remain at the center of the state’s 43rd Legislative District, you’re going to have to wait a bit longer. For the first time since its creation, the Washington State Redistricting Commission has failed to finalize a new set of maps for congressional and state legislative districts. The process will now go to the state Supreme Court leaving the final decision on borders determining legislative representation neighborhood by neighborhood across the state in the hands of judges.

For the 43rd, the court’s decisions are most likely to result in minor changes with the commission’s “approved” — but not final — map proposal adding southern Laurelhurst in exchange for lopping off areas around Green Lake. But some of the commission member proposals for the 43rd show just how complicated the process can get.

State law required a November 15th deadline for the commissioners to develop the new maps. The reshaping of the state’s boundaries were planned to be in place in time for the 2022 midterm elections.

Created by state constitutional amendment in the 1980’s, the commission first created maps in 1991, after the 1990 census. A different group of commissioners are appointed each time. Two people are appointed by Democrats and two by Republicans. Those four then appoint a non-voting, fifth member to act as chair.

For a map to be approved, at least three of the voting members must agree on it. The idea was to take the process out of the hands of a partisan Legislature, which in many states leads to lawmakers drawing maps that nakedly favor one party over the other. Washington’s process typically leads to the vast majority of the seats being safe for one party or the other, while a handful are competitive.

This year’s commission included former Capitol Hill state Rep. Brady Pinero Walkinshaw as one of the Democratic representatives, along with April Sims. In an on-brand move for the Republicans, their commissioners were both straight white men, Paul Graves and Joe Fain. Sarah Augustine served as chair.

You might not be surprised that some of the most disruptive changes to the Democratic stalwart 43rd District were put forward in the Republican proposals: Continue reading →

Voter turnout is up — particularly in D3’s wealthier neighborhoods — What will that mean for Sawant and Orion in November?

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In the “election surprises” category, this curious nugget of information wins first prize: in Broadmoor, the gated golf club community near Madison Park, five people voted for District 3 incumbent and Socialist Alternative member Kshama Sawant. Over 400 people in Broadmoor turned in ballots (mostly supporting third-place finisher Pat Murakami) this year. An unusually high number for the precinct.

Broadmoor is not alone. The uptick in voter turnout reflects a city- and D3-wide trend. Particularly higher-income homeowners turned out in larger numbers compared to 2015.

“The most conservative voters were more motivated for this election than they’ve been in quite some time in Seattle,” said local political consultant Crystal Fincher.

But, she added, “we’re seeing an overall energized electorate, particularly in Seattle. That’s a really, really big deal.” Fincher partly credits the city’s Democracy Voucher program.

According to local consultant Ben Anderstone, Trump and KOMO’s controversial ‘Seattle Is Dying’ documentary have something to do with it as well.

Continue reading →

Final election data maps: Capitol Hill leaned ‘anti-establishment,’ but rallied for Mosqueda

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More blue = More Mosqueda

It’s no surprise that Capitol Hill leans hard to left in local elections. In 2015, socialist City Council member Kshama Sawant decisively won reelection against Urban League CEO Pamela Banks with roughly a ten point margin, and lefty Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders had a solid base of support on Capitol Hill during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary.

The November 2017 general election results complicate this picture — but only slightly. Thanks to Phil Gardner, regional Democratic strategist, CHS has access to detailed visualizations of the final precinct-level voting data from the 2017 local general election. (November’s final election results were finalized on November 28th, according to King County Elections.) Gardner looked at voting data from the citywide Position 8 city council, mayoral, and King County Sheriff’s races. Continue reading →

Mapping Sawant’s win in the politically divided District 3

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Support for Sawant goes to 1.01 in this map of Election Night totals by precinct created by @gardnerphil

Kshama Sawant has secured her City Council job for four more years, and with it a new challenge: representing an extremely polarized District 3. Maps of election night-only returns show the “Capitol Hill divide” was in full effect in the race between Sawant and challenger Pamela Banks.

Capitol Hill and the Central District, representing nearly all of apartment-dense precincts in the district, went solidly for Sawant. In fact, early returns show Sawant took nearly every precinct west of 31st Ave and south of Roy St. Sawant also made inroads north of the Republican St divide that characterized the 2013 mayoral race between Mike McGinn and Ed Murray. Continue reading →

Is Capitol Hill really the noisiest neighborhood in Seattle?

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You’ve probably seen this map from online real estate service Trulia that shows the “noisiest” areas of Seattle. Depending on where the editor took a screen grab from the animation — which is showing noise complaint locations by month, by the way — Capitol Hill and the University District either look really “noisy” or really super “noisy”

While it’s true that Pike/Pine noise is significant enough that leases for new buildings in the area are including clauses stating that tenants acknowledge they are living in a “vibrant” area for nightlife, we took another look at noise issues that shows a slightly different view.

Looking at SPD incidents involving noise — not just the formal complaint filings — shows a much noisier city as a whole. Continue reading →

I-5 Shores: cradle of Capitol Hill’s nightlife economy

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"You should sleep late man, it's just much easier on your constitution" -- I-5 Shores -- Check out the live What time does your neighborhood leave for work? map here

“You should sleep late man, it’s just much easier on your constitution” — I-5 Shores — Check out the live What time does your neighborhood leave for work? map here

If you’re reading this anywhere within the rectangle of dense apartments between Roy and Thomas and Broadway and I-5, please keep it down. Your bartender might be sleeping.

The most excellent Seattle Times FYI Guy has posted a new map and dataset based on the 2013 Census that shows what time of day different areas of the city start their workdays.

We assume that I-5 Shores workers rolling out of the house between noon and 4 PM are the folks that make the neighborhood — and the city’s — food, drink, and entertainment economy hum. There is a similar time of day pattern seen south of Madison around 12th Ave and Seattle U, too. Meanwhile, don’t be envious of those blocks around Stevens Elementary in Fancy Pants Capitol Hill that start their workdays a little later around 10 AM — they’re probably just cleaning up after their children.

You can check out the patterns through the day and the prime commute time in your part of Capitol Hill here.