This will probably not be a SNOWBRUARY storm but forecasts predict Capitol Hill is likely to see some snowfall over the coming weekend — and week ahead.

Here is what our federal friends at the National Weather Service have to say about the uncertain conditions around a possibly snowy Seattle:

Looking at the variables, first the positive variables for snow. Temperatures aloft are cold enough, model 850 mb temperatures -6 to -9C through the weekend, 1000-850 mb thickness values drop below 1300 meters late tonight and remain below 1300 meters through Sunday as well. The negative variables for snow, surface gradients remain onshore and 925 mb winds are also southerly. Even with the cold air aloft these two variables are snow killers.

With the onshore flow high temperatures both days will be near 40. Lows Saturday night near freezing and Sunday night a couple of degrees colder with most places in upper 20s. Given these conditions the best chances for accumulating snow are going to take place in the overnight hours. There are no organized systems moving into the area over the weekend. The models have consistently indicated a vort max clipping the North Coast Saturday night which will increase the snowfall chances there of all places. This little feature will make it to the Northwest Interior by Sunday morning. For the remainder of the area the cool and unstable air mass will produce showers. Shower activity will increase during the day with the daytime heating helping to destabilize the air mass.

The bottom line? “Even with the temperatures above freezing during the day heavier showers will push the snow levels briefly down to sea level,” the forecasters write. “Snow levels lowering to sea level in the overnight hours but shower activity will decrease as the lower layers of the air mass cool. All this makes for a tough snow forecast as the snow amounts will be dependent on the timing, intensity and location of the showers.”

Capitol Hill’s elevation might matter. The NWS says even an elevation above only 300 feet could make a difference — especially when temperatures are lowest at night. The Hill tops out above 400 feet in Volunteer Park, by the way.

SNOWBRUARY? The big one was six years ago. Streets were a mess and multiple school closures accompanied “historic” snowfall in Seattle in February 2019.

This February’s predicted wintry mix comes as La Niña weather pattern are bringing colder, wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest. 2019, by the way, was an El Niño year.

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