Sawant’s Election Night crowd at Chop Suey

Percentage totals for the recall race by day

The full reversal of Election Night’s big lead was completed Thursday as “no” on recall vote totals climbed above 50% putting District 3 representative Kshama Sawant a step closer to keeping her seat on the Seattle City Council.

Thursday’s tally was relatively tiny, covering only 1,300 or so ballots but the overall impact was strong as 67% of the day’s count fell for “no,” pushing the pro-Sawant votes to a slim 232 vote lead.

A spokesperson for Sawant’s campaign declined to comment on Thursday’s tally and said they would have more to say Friday morning.

The next steps will sometimes be excruciating and literally vote by vote as King County Elections works to follow up on some 591 challenged ballots by December 16th.

King County Elections said there were 656 challenged ballots that can be resolved — mostly issues of voters who forgot to sign or their signature didn’t match.

As for “uncurable” challenged ballots, they should be considered as in play. Those typically involve situations like someone moving during an election and being issued two ballots. If the voter returns the first ballot, the county will hold onto that vote in case the second ballot also shows up. The other category that will ultimately end up in the uncurable total are ballots that were received too late.

Officials say voters have until December 16th to address issues with their ballots. King County Elections workers are contacting voters with challenged ballots by phone and email but can also check the status of your ballot here.

If most are eventually cured, the Kshama Solidarity campaign needs to have won only around 30% of the challenged ballots to claim victory.

But a recount is also likely.

Unlike some races, local ballot measures like this do not have legal thresholds that require a recount to be performed. “Interestingly enough, there actually aren’t any mandatory recount requirements for local ballot measures (which is what a recall is), just local races,” an elections spokesperson tells CHS. “A recount could be requested, but the requestor does bear the responsibility for the cost.”

Turnout was at its highest in some of the least populate, wealthiest precincts in the city

Turnout has climbed above 52% in the December special election. The 2019 November general election, in which Sawant overcame challenger Egan Orion with a late comeback win, saw turnout hit 59% in D3. A 59% turnout in the recall election would have added another 4,600 ballots to the pool.

If the turnaround sticks, it adds yet another shocking victory to Sawant’s political history in the city powered in part by the political savvy and strong volunteer network of her Socialist Alternative political group, and partly by the nature of the state’s by-mail and dropbox voting system that means election results are released in separate waves — the first numbers typically represent early, older, more affluent voters while the later totals are dominated by younger voters who tend to vote late and favor more progressive candidates.

This Election Night’s first tally was dominated by early by-mail voting in the district’s more affluent north and along the wealthy shoreline of Lake Washington where support for removing Sawant is strongest and District 3 voters tend to be the most supportive of moderate and centrist candidates.

Her previous “turnaround” victory came in 2019 over downtown chamber-backed Orion. Sawant trounced Urban League CEO Pamela Banks in 2015 without the drama. But her “comeback” win against veteran councilmember Richard Conlin in 2013 was when the Sawant camp’s legend first began to grow. On election night, Conlin was more than 7 points ahead of Sawant, with a 6,000 vote lead. Sawant, of course, refused to concede the race.

Eight years later, organizers led by neighborhood opponents of the socialist city council member and powered by the financial contributions from a mix of residents and real estate developers outlined multiple acts they say warranted Sawant’s recall including 1) using city resources to promote a Tax Amazon initiative, 2) allowing demonstrators inside City Hall during a protest in June 2020, and 3) marching to Mayor Jenny Durkan’s home address kept secret due to her past role as a federal prosecutor.

Both sides have spent hugely in the battle. Kshama Solidarity reports expenditures of more than $917,000 and has more than $20,000 in debt, while Recall Sawant and campaign manager Henry Bridger report they have spent $734,000 and owe another $36,000 more. The pro-recall A Better Seattle PAC is on the hook for about $161,000, mostly in expenditures on expensive television ads with Comcast.

The Kshama Solidarity campaign has been operating in a difficult arena, trying to drive turnout among the district’s youngest, most transient voters with on the ground tactics including “grassroots voting centers” in an unprecedented special election. The December 7th vote has fallen in the middle of the holiday season after the Recall Sawant campaign failed to meet deadlines to be part of the November General Election and decided to target a December vote. Pandemic restrictions have not made things any easier. The Solidarity campaign said one of its biggest challenges was simply informing voters than election was happening.

If she is able to withstand the recall, Sawant will remain on the council as its longest serving member. Her term runs through 2023.

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