Life along the E Republican line
Want to know how the December 7th District 3 recall election will play out? Whether Kshama Sawant will keep her seat on the Seattle City Council will probably break down along the E Republican line.
King County Elections has released the final precinct by precinct voting maps for the November General Election and the results show a mostly familiar pattern with the core of District 3 across central Capitol Hill and the Central District away from the shores of Lake Washington tending toward the more progressive candidates in the races and a hard northern line forming near the disputed political territories of Capitol Hill’s E Republican street.
Position 9’s E Republican Line Map — View full visualization
For one model, how about a comparison to the November results for the unsuccessful bid for the council’s Position 9 at-large seat by Nikkita Oliver, perhaps the candidate from November’s races that most closely matches Sawant’s strong left political profile. Oliver handily won the D3 progressive core in its most tenant-dominated precincts but couldn’t penetrate far beyond the E Republican line as victorious brewery owner Sara Nelson held strong from basically E Mercer north and along the Lake Washington waterfront.
City Attorney E Republican Line Map — View full visualization
The full view of the Seattle City Attorney race
Another? November’s most politically stratified race, the battle for the Seattle City Attorney also mostly cleaved to the model.
The only candidate more feared by right-leaning Seattle and the Seattle Times editorial board than Sawant, police abolitionist Nicole Thomas-Kennedy more than held her own in the D3 core and managed to make an even stronger — though still limited — showing north of E Republican than Oliver in the race against Republican Ann Davison.
More clues?
Central District born and raised Bruce Harrell’s path to victory didn’t necessarily include voters in that neighborhood’s core as the progressive lines held for Lorena González’s unsuccessful bid for the office:
Mayor
Position 8
Incumbent Position 8 Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda, meanwhile, blew the conventional wisdom away with a border-busting showing over an overmatched challenger.
While the District 3 recall vote is certainly unique, there are also recent races for the area’s city council seat to look back on for patterns. In the maps below, you can see Sawant’s relative percentage strength across the district’s voting precincts in her 2019 victory — the darker the green, the higher percentage of votes Sawant claimed. Meanwhile, on the right you can see a breakdown of Sawant’s 2015 victory playing out along the same streets and neighborhoods.
In addition to the historical voting patterns, the key factor for the Sawant recall vote will, of course, be turnout. In November, 55.3% of Seattle’s registered voters cast a ballot. December’s vote will be completely different. For one, only District 3’s 75,000 or so registered voters can participate. For another, for the first time, there will be a Seattle election held between Thanksgiving and the December holiday season.
CHS last reported on the E Republican line here following the August primary as political border skirmishes played out along the transitions between Capitol Hill and the Central District’s apartment-dense cores and the area’s bastions of expensive single family housing.
We’ll know what role the line plays in this next massive Seattle political decision starting December 7th.
Thanks to Jason Weill for creating the November 2021 Tableau visualizations — and for producing the special set of E Republican Line maps seen above!
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It looks like the Mercer line to me, but that wouldn’t support the Sawant/Stranger dog whistle propaganda about a “racist, right wing” recall. If the overwhelmingly progressive citizens of D3 recall her, it is because she is an ineffective leader that abuses her power. It has nothing to do with left vs right.
Not a fan of recalls, but Sawant is just too toxic. I have no issue with the far left either (voted for Oliver). Sawant just has no interest in actually representing her district but would rather latch on to whatever the latest national issue is to scream about.
I live in one of those areas where her “toxic” idealism has made a real and continuing difference in the lives around me.
Just because she jumps to the front with her megaphone to spout a few Marxist cliques and take credit while others do the hard work of negotiation, legislation and leadership doesn’t mean she has actually accomplished anything. In many respects she has done more damage to the progressive movement than anyone else in Seattle. Seattle needs ethical leadership that inspires not divides and D3 needs a representative on City Council, something we have not had in a very long time due to the Sawant cult.
I too lived in one of of those areas, for 25 years. I too can see the results of her work. Recall Sawant !!!
Care to elaborate?
She made it so I didn’t hafta pay 1st/last/deposit all at once in order to rent on the Hill.
New Red Lines fresh off the press. Come get your labels. And remember, you’re not like us, you’re one of them. Divisive politics at their best.
Thank you, my feelings exactly. Capital Hill is 95% Left Liberals. But let’s demonize half of them. The Stranger and CHS adding fuel to the fire.
I am curious about who in D3 totals won some of the races, Sara Nelson or Nikita Oliver, and Nicole Thomas-Kennedy or Ann Davison. I know that it likely be a different voting base; still it would be interesting to know the D3 totals in the general election.
The Seattle Times published an article on election maps about 12 hrs after you posted your comment :-D
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/maps-from-seattle-elections-that-made-bruce-harrell-mayor-show-where-races-were-won-and-lost/
Also, Justin, as I’m sure you know, this “red-line” would be more accurately placed on E Mercer St – is there a reason why you’re not putting it there other than trying to infuse some clicky division into the article with the republican/red-line connotations?
None really filter votes by D3 totals. I was curious about the totals for D3, that is who D3 as a total would have elected. Remember these maps tend to demonstrate the pattern of votes in D3 over time and overtime, Sawant with those patterns. So turnout is different in all elections, and I was wondering if anyone with more resources had put a D3 filter over the November 2021 elections. I looked at the raw data from KC and am feeling too lazy to count all precincts in D3.
My prediction is that the shape of the map is same as prior years, but Sawant is recalled, bc the young people in the more central part of the district can’t be bothered to put their ballots in the mail. (Fwiw I’m a young person who already sent in my ballot marked yes.)
Sawant’s people have been out all week on Broadway and probably elsewhere offering to print ballots and “help people vote.” Obviously yes votes only. Traditional assumptions about voter turnout might not hold.
If there’s a way to cheat the vote ( by turning in ballots for every known resident of a building perhaps?) I would not put it past the Sawant people to try it. They might get some yes votes past a cursory signature review. King County better be on its “A game” for voter fraud. Sawant’s people are motivated and blindly loyal. If they figure out a way to cheat they’ll do it.
Hmmm you make good points.
Fwiw, to clarify, a “yes” vote on the ballot is anti-Sawant, means “yes on recall”.
anti-Voter suppression is cheating now? lol wut
Handing a legal voter a ballot is suspicious to you.
This is a really weird definition of voter fraud. Is voting important? Yes. Should every person who legally can, vote? ABSOLUTELY YES. We should make it a holiday, make it easy, do whatever. If they can legally vote, they should.
And if you knew how the voting system worked, whether or not they can legally vote is monitored after the ballots are mailed in. Signature checks, etc.
How is it legal to “print ballots” on the street? Can I just write my vote on the back of a napkin & send it in?
In Washington, to aid in making our elections more accessible to everyone, you can print out a replacement ballot and mail it in. The assumption being that it might have been lost, damaged or you might be away and unable to receive your ballot and return it in time otherwise. Most people don’t know this is an option, and many campaigns since we went to 100% vote by mail, have set up tables at places like the light rail station to help people in the final week of elections print ballots and vote. If we want our elections to reflect the broad demographics of all potential voters it’s a great get out the vote strategy.
The Sawant campaign has definitely been going about it more aggressively than I feel like I’ve seen previously.
I suspect very few people are aware of it. How do they get a secure association between the ballot barcode and the identity of the voter?
translation: I don’t want the votes against what I believe in to count!!! the “Bolide” Way!
In the past couple years, I’ve become very interested in how the press shapes public dialogue. Here, Justin tips his bias by referring to those who voted for Harrell et al. as “right-leaning”, mirroring Sawant’s divisive rhetoric, while referring to Gonzales and the others as “progressive”. A more accurate reading of the situation would be to refer to Harrell as progressive and Gonzalez as radical left.
Yes, I agree. Progressive Liberals are now referred to as as Right Leaning
Remember that Sawant Solidarity has double of the number of individual donors with D3 than the recall campaign.
The hardest part is going to be getting the lower-income D3 voters to turn out. The wealthy residents have already been returning their ballots. This is the turnout as of Wednesday.
Remember to vote, people.
She will be fine. Her army of volunteers, paid and unpaid and from all over the country, are everywhere posting signs, waving clipboards, and hosting voting tables. She is the best financed politician in our city when you figure in donations (over $800k) plus huge volunteer hours. Her’s is a national effort for a Council seat, which makes defeating her incredibly difficult.
Yah and they are an enthusiastic army with mostly reasonable wishes for equity. Plus some internationals among them who moved here and decided to work for her.
I think she’ll stay and maybe be voted out next election.
No need to “remember to vote.” Just walk down Broadway. Sawant’s got 2 or 3 tables set up to print you a recall ballot.
How is that legal?
How is it legal that Amazon and mass media get to use their power to influence vote?
They have as much right to state their opinions as you do.
Using powerful wide ranging media infrastructure to influence opinions is propaganda where I am from.
Would you call it that if their opinions agreed with yours?
It looks like the 2015 map is from just the initial results from election night. Anyone have a link to a map of the final results on a map?
Voted NO!!