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A last minute look at the cash in the races to represent Capitol Hill in Olympia, D.C.

screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-3-05-12-pmThe race to represent Capitol Hill and a good chunk of the area around our shores of the Puget Sound in Washington D.C. has been a money magnet — more than $4 million has flowed into the campaigns from right here in the 98112 and 98102 to the surprisingly powerful ZIP code of West Somerville, Massachusetts. Meanwhile, there are also money trails to track in the race to represent our part of Seattle in Olympia.

“Follow the money,” is the guidance Deep Throat offers journalist Bob Woodward in the classic All the President’s Men. It was good advice for ferreting out corruption in Washington D.C. but when it comes to covering local politics, a focus on campaign contributions and endorsements can result in a front-runner bias and a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

We’ve tried to start our coverage around the issues. In the WA 07 District race for Congress:

As Jayapal vows to take Seattle progressivism to D.C., Walkinshaw touts local focus in 7th District

And in the state race to represent the 43rd District in Olympia:

State rep candidates Macri, Shih fight for recognition on Capitol Hill as voting begins

But as the campaigns move into their final turns and any remaining undecideds sort out their choices as they join the around 60% of voters still expected to drop their ballot before Tuesday, here is a final examination that will make Deep Throat happy and a brief look at what influence all that cash was able to buy across local media and community groups.

Where the money is going in the 43rd

Judging by the money alone, we are going to have a tight race in the 43rd. Trial lawyer Dan Shih raised a bundle before the primary and has continued to hold his own in the months since but it has been in a much closer cash race with August’s top vote getter, housing advocate Nicole Macri. In the big push to the end across September and October, the candidates turned in a practical fundraising dead heat — Macri raised just under $58,000, Shih, around $3,000 less.

As for where their contributors come from, Macri takes the local money crown by a landslide. Nearly 80% of her contributors list a Seattle address. Only 25% of Shih’s money comes from Seattle with Bellevue, Mercer Island, and Renton givers also coughing up large chunks of the campaign’s cash.

The two candidates have received contributions from a mix of individuals and groups at around the same rate, according to the state’s data. 65% of Shih’s contributed cash came from individuals, 59% of Macri’s. A listing of each candidate’s top 20 contributors is above.

District 7’s big money
Because of the requirements around quarterly reporting in congressional races, the big race to represent our part of the state in Washington D.C. has much murkier optics when it comes to who is giving money to power the campaigns of Democrat vs. Democrat Pramila Jayapal and Brady Walkinshaw.

With filings for the last quarter still being processed as of their mid-October deadline, all we know are the totals are big. Nobody running for the House of Representatives in Washington has received more cash that Jayapal and her $2.5 million in contributions. But Walkinshaw isn’t far behind. The current 43rd District rep tallied $1.6 million in contributions.

Through August, one of the largest differences between the two candidates was where in the nation their individual contributors lived. Walkinshaw’s money was largely homegrown with more than 30% coming from Capitol Hill ZIP codes. Jayapal’s early individual contributions were, you might be surprised to learn, centered around Postal Code 02144 in West Somerville, Massachusetts. That’s the registered address for ActBlue, “a PAC allowing individuals and groups to channel their progressive dollars to candidates and movements of their choosing.” Through August, more than 40% of Jayapal’s individual funding had come from the PAC.

UPDATE: A Jayapal campaign representative has clarified the ActBlue contributions:

ActBlue is a non-profit, building fundraising technology for the left.  It is an online credit card processing tool that all Democrats can use.  The contributions you see from ActBlue on our reports are actually contributions from individuals who gave directly to our campaign through links we provided or can be found on our website and their contributions are also reported.  The way it works is you report your ActBlue contributions as earmarked contributions and then the individual contribution is then reported separately.

Both have since been the beneficiaries of even more Political Action Committee spending with Walkinshaw getting 1.6% of his total form PACs and Jayapal reporting a whopping 12% of her money as sourced to the interest groups. Examples of Walkinshaw’s PAC backers include CHC Bold PAC, Leadership for Today and Tomorrow, Vargas for Congress
Equality Pac, Actblue, and Friends of Debra Shore. Jayapal’s labor-packed PACs include the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, United Auto Workers, Moveon.org, IUPAT Pac, American Federation of Teachers, the AFL-CIO, and NARAL.

And both have seen a surge in “independent expenditures” from PACs heading into the final stretch. The Latino Victory Fund boosted Walkinshaw in October with a $285,000 advertising spend. A few days later, Women Vote! spent $300,000 on advertising to defend Jayapal. Overall, the Seattle Times reports Jayapal has been boosted by more than $500,000 in spending outside her campaign, while Walkinshaw’s only such boost so far came from the Latino Victory Fund.

As for the final days, there isn’t much left to burn. Jayapal reports having spent $2.3 million of her $2.5 million war chest. Walkinshaw reports having burned through all but around $100,000 of his $1.6 million.

Endorsements
Still struggling to make a choice after reviewing the candidates on their records and their initiatives… and the money? Here is a look at which candidates media outlets and some key groups have decided to back.

screen-shot-2016-11-05-at-4-36-00-pm

Our spreadsheet was not working for mobile users — you can get the live grid complete with links to the endorsements here

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Little D
Little D
8 years ago

There is maybe no end to orgs and sites that issue endorsements, but Seattlish and Fuse have also endorsed Jayapal.

joanna
8 years ago

I too wonder about the limited endorsement list and choice of organizations, in a way that seems to favor Walkinshaw. In terms of just Democratic organizations the following endorsed Jayapal: King County Democrats, Snohomish County Democrats, 11th Legislative District Democrats, 21st Legislative District Democrats, 32nd Legislative District Democrats, 33rd Legislative District Democrats, 34th Legislative District Democrats, 36th Legislative District Democrats, 37th Legislative District Democrats, 46th Legislative District Democrats, Snohomish County Young Democrats,Skagit County Young Democrats. There does not seem to a news logic to your list. If you want to endorse Walkinshaw than you should just begin doing endorsements.

FWIW
FWIW
8 years ago

The endorsements are focused on organizations that directly represent the neighborhood or have some policy related synergy. Why would anyone in CH care about West Seattle or Tukwila democrats? The 43rd LD is what matters. CH is also the most dense, transit-using neighborhood in the state so both The Urbanist and Transit blog work on issues that matter. Fuse and Seattleish are less well known or directly relevant to the CH voter. Justin highlights where money is coming from. This is a solid article with relevant information from an unbiased perspective. It is called journalism.

Alan
Alan
8 years ago
Reply to  FWIW

Agreed.
In this race, I am especially interested in how Jayapal responded to Walkinshaw’s “negative” ad. Instead of refuting the 3 major points in the ad against her (which she apparently cannot), she and her supporters accused it of being racist or anti-women. It’s just an honest, direct, competitive ad.
I’m with Dan Savage. And Brady.

Little D
Little D
8 years ago
Reply to  FWIW

I tend to disagree…the Transit Blog and Urbanist are no more or less relevant to Capitol Hill than other sources (like Seattlish). I respect some of them more than others, but all are citywide sources. In fact, the reason I started reading Seattlish was because CHS included them on their list of 2015 endorsements: http://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2015/11/2015-seattle-media-endorsements-round-up/

While I don’t think it needed to be in the article, I do think it is useful to read in the comments who fellow CD 7 Democratic organizations have endorsed. CD7 stretches down to Burien, over to Vashon, and into SW Snohomish County. If your candidate does/doesn’t win, it’s useful to remember the broader voting dynamics of the district.

Happy voting!

joanna
8 years ago

I would argue that how you chose to do the endorsement grid then displays your priorities, not necessarily those of Capitol Hill. I notice that the real estate agents certainly come into the 37th to define Capitol Hill. I will agree that the 43rd is Capitol Hill’s main district. Still I think it would just as important to know that King County Democrats endorsed Jayapal, along with the 37th and the Metropolitan Democratic Club; that is just as important as the Urbanist. How is the Seattle Times, Urbanist and Settle Transit more relevant than the list environmental leaders or the many Education and Labor Unions who endorsed Jayapal? continued

joanna
8 years ago

Yes you do mention labor in the body, but not as important in the grid. When you say the Urbanist is more important than Labor, it seems like you are looking at the part of Capitol Hill that is mainly new tech–maybe. Are you sure that the Urabanist is more important in Capitol Hill than the other progressive and social justice groups like Fuse, Washington CAN, the many women’s organizations or OneAmerica? How did that work for the City Council elections? A member of congress will be voting on many issues beyond the Urbanist perspective, and Jayapal certainly has the endorsement of many respected environmental issues.

jane a
jane a
8 years ago

I got two flyers in the mail that were pro-Payapal (one from her campaign the other from a women’s voter group) and they convinced me to vote for Walkinshaw. Both claimed Payapal was attacked by Walkinshaw for being a woman, and that this was an attack on all women. I saw no evidence of sexism by him and was offended at the suggestion I should vote for her out of gender loyalty. That helped sway my undecided vote.

Vi
Vi
8 years ago
Reply to  jane a

Classic: punish a woman because of her style by voting against her, ignoring her accomplishments or policy positions.