The summer of my arrival in Seattle was glorious. The next year, summer never came. No fear of that sad phenomenon in 2012. Cliff Mass says we’ve made it. And, as usual, the sunshine comes a week into July:

FINALLY, True Summer Begins
Often, as in this year, it happens right after July 4th, and almost certainly by mid-July, resulting in the oft-noted statement by the meteorological cognoscenti that summer starts on July 12th in western Washington.  The effect is so profound, repeatable, and abrupt that we see it clearly in the climatological data.  For example, here is the climatological daily probability of precipitation for Sea-Tac airport.  On July 1st, the probability of at least .01 inches is still around 30%—but then the bottom drops out, and by mid-month it is in the low teens and around August 1st below 10%.  Folks, this golden time, between July 15th and August 15th, is when you should plan your outdoor weddings, barbecues, and other rain-sensitive activities.  Few areas are as dry as we are during that period.

But what about this year?  Today and tomorrow there will still be come showers and clouds around. Wednesday, July 4th, will be the transition day, but one that should be dry–particularly around fireworks time.  And then we transition to meteorological nirvana, as the persistent trough over the NW moves offshore and ridging develops over western North America. more…

• Summer 2012 means more wade pool hours in Seattle — 6 Capitol Hill + CD places to play
• Outdoor-ish drinky drink spots on Capitol Hill (2012 Edition)

Also, by the way, you might want to keep an eye on the sky on the 4th. The #miccheckwallst folks are doing a money drop in protest of Citizens United.